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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">cardiovascular</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Кардиоваскулярная терапия и профилактика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Cardiovascular Therapy and Prevention</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1728-8800</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2619-0125</issn><publisher><publisher-name>«SILICEA-POLIGRAF» LLC</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.15829/1728-8800-2013-4-51-55</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">cardiovascular-213</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЯ И ПРОФИЛАКТИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>EPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTION</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>РОССИЙСКАЯ ЭКСПЕРТНАЯ СИСТЕМА ОРИСКОН – ОЦЕНКА РИСКА ОСНОВНЫХ НЕИНФЕКЦИОННЫХ ЗАБОЛЕВАНИЙ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>RUSSIAN EXPERT SYSTEM ORISKON – ASSESSMENT OF THE MAJOR NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASE RISK</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Шальнова</surname><given-names>С. А.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Shalnova</surname><given-names>S. A.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>руководитель отдела эпидемиологии ХНИЗ</p><p>Тел.: 8 (903) 238-87-83</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>tel.: 8 (903) 238-87-83</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">sshalnova@gnicpm.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Калинина</surname><given-names>А. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Kalinina</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>руководитель отдела первичной профилактики ХНИЗ в системе здравоохранения</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Деев</surname><given-names>А. Д.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Deev</surname><given-names>A. D.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>руководитель лаборатории биостатистики</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пустеленин</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pustelenin</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>ведущий программист</p></bio><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ФГБУ «Государственный научно-исследовательский центр профилактической медицины» Минздрава России, Москва</institution></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>State Research Centre for Preventive Medicine, Moscow</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2013</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>20</day><month>08</month><year>2013</year></pub-date><volume>12</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>51</fpage><lpage>55</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Шальнова С.А., Калинина А.М., Деев А.Д., Пустеленин А.В., 2013</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2013</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Шальнова С.А., Калинина А.М., Деев А.Д., Пустеленин А.В.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Shalnova S.A., Kalinina A.M., Deev A.D., Pustelenin A.V.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://cardiovascular.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/213">https://cardiovascular.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/213</self-uri><abstract><p>Новая медицинская технология “Оценка совокупного РИСКа Основных Неинфекционных заболеваний (ОРИСКОН)” является впервые разработанной в России экспертной системой (ЭС), позволяющей не только определить абсолютный и относительный индивидуальный совокупный риск основных хронических неинфекционных заболеваний (ХНИЗ) в ближайшие 10 лет, но и выделить категории лиц с высоким риском, у которых профилактическое воздействие может обеспечить максимальный медико-социальный эффект и сформировать адресные базовые рекомендации по тактике управления этим риском. ЭС разработана на основе результатов 20-летнего проспективного наблюдения за большими контингентами населения, репрезентативными для страны. Перечень параметров здоровья и факторов, включенных в модель расчета риска, а также методы их оценки выбраны и сформированы на принципах доказательной медицины и основаны на стандартных методах измерения, рекомендуемых экспертами ВОЗ. ЭС не является диагностической, она предназначена для определения совокупного риска ХНИЗ и может быть применена как самостоятельно, так и в интеграции с комплексным обследованием при диспансеризации, профилактических осмотрах, на этапе доврачебного скрининга, что определяет ее ресурсосберегающий характер. </p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>A new medical technology ORISKON (assessment of the major noncommunicable disease risk) is the first Russian expert system (ES) which not only assesses absolute and relative total levels of 10-year individual risk of major chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD), but also identifies high-risk groups and provides the basis for targeted, effective and cost-effective preventive interventions in these groups. This ES was developed using the prospective data of the 20-year follow-up of large representative population samples. Health parameters and factors used for the risk assessment were selected and defined according to the principles of evidence-based medicine and the expert recommendations and standards by the World Health Organization. While this ES is not a diagnostic tool, it can be used for the assessment of total NCD risk on its own or as a cost-effective component of the complex examination during dispanserisation and preventive screening. </p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>оценка риска</kwd><kwd>медицинская технология</kwd><kwd>экспертная система</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>risk assessment</kwd><kwd>medical technology</kwd><kwd>expert system</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Federal law dated November 21, 2011. № 323-FL “About health protection of the of citizens in the Russian Federation”. http://base.consultant.ru/cons/ cgi/online.cgi?req=doc; base=law; n=121895&amp;utm_campaign=hotdocs_ day5572942&amp;utm_source=ya.direct&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_ content=55768005 Russian (Федеральный Закон от 21 ноября 2011 г. № 323-Ф3 “Об охране здоровья граждан в Российской Федерации”. http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc; base=law; n=121895&amp;utm_campaign=hotdocs_day5572942&amp;utm_source=ya. direct&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_content=55768005).</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Federal law dated November 21, 2011. № 323-FL “About health protection of the of citizens in the Russian Federation”. http://base.consultant.ru/cons/ cgi/online.cgi?req=doc; base=law; n=121895&amp;utm_campaign=hotdocs_ day5572942&amp;utm_source=ya.direct&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_ content=55768005 Russian (Федеральный Закон от 21 ноября 2011 г. № 323-Ф3 “Об охране здоровья граждан в Российской Федерации”. http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc; base=law; n=121895&amp;utm_campaign=hotdocs_day5572942&amp;utm_source=ya. direct&amp;utm_medium=cpc&amp;utm_content=55768005).</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">State program of the public health development in Russian Federation. http:// www.rosminzdrav.ru/health/72. 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