cardiovascularКардиоваскулярная терапия и профилактикаCardiovascular Therapy and Prevention1728-88002619-0125«SILICEA-POLIGRAF» LLC10.15829/1728-8800-2015-6-54-58cardiovascular-283Research ArticleЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИЯ И ПРОФИЛАКТИКАEPIDEMIOLOGY AND PREVENTIONПОПУЛЯЦИОННЫЕ МОДЕЛИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ СЕРДЕЧНО-СОСУДИСТОГО РИСКА: ЦЕЛЕСООБРАЗНОСТЬ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ И АНАЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ОБЗОР СУЩЕСТВУЮЩИХ МОДЕЛЕЙPOPULATION MODELS OF CARDIOVASCULAR RISK PREDICTION: EXPEDIENCE OF MODELING AND ANALYTIC REVIEW OF CURRENT MODELSКонцеваяА. В.KontsevayaA. V.

д.м.н., руководитель лаборатории экономического анализа эпидемиологических исследований и профилактических технологий отдела эпидемиологии ХНИЗ

akontsevaya@gnicpm.ruШальноваС. А.ShalnovaS. A.

д.м.н., профессор, руководитель отдела

ФГБУ “Государственный научно-исследовательский центр профилактической медицины Минздрава России”, МоскваРоссияNational Research Center for Preventive Medicine of the Ministry of Health, MoscowRussian Federation2015201220151465458Copyright © Концевая А.В., Шальнова С.А., 20152015Концевая А.В., Шальнова С.А.Kontsevaya A.V., Shalnova S.A.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://cardiovascular.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/283

В статье обобщены данные о подходах к моделированию популяционного риска сердечно-сосудистых заболеваний (ССЗ), включая методологические аспекты и практическую значимость результатов моделирования. Представлена общая схема популяционного моделирования, состоящая из трех этапов: сбор исходных данных для входных параметров, непосредственно процесс моделирования и его результаты, а также практическое применение результатов моделирования. Описаны основные популяционные модели попу- ляционного риска ССЗ с примерами и результатами их использования. Дано заключение о целесообразности разработки отечественной модели прогнозирования популяционного сердечно-сосудис- того риска, максимально адаптированной как к специфике России, так и к требуемым исходам моделирования в российской популяции. Наличие такого инструмента позволит лицам, принимающим решение, прогнозировать эффективность профилактических мер и адекватно распределять ограниченные ресурсы. 

The review collects the data on the approaches to modeling of population risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including methodological aspects and practical significance of modeling results. The general scheme is provided for population modeling that includes three steps: collection of data for incoming parameters, the modeling process itself and its results, and practical application of the modeling. The main population models are described of the CVD risk with examples and results of its usage. The conclusion provided on the airworthiness for national model development of the prediction of population cardiovascular risk, maximally adapted for Russia specifics and for the expected outcomes of modeling in Russian population. The presence of such instrument makes it, for the policy makers, to predict efficacy of prevention meres and effectively disperse shortened resources. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.